存贷款利差结构变化对利率市场化改革的启示

本文从商业银行存贷款实际利差结构变化的角度出发,分析影响实际利差变动的主要因素,并据此评估利率市场化对商业银行经营带来的冲击。分析认为,商业银行可能采取非理性价格竞争手段扩大市场份额,并通过增加信贷规模方式来应对利率市场化导致的利差收窄。对此,中央银行应尽快建立存款保险制度,并加强通过间接手段来影响市场利率的能力。     

我国商业银行利差容忍度测度

文章假定我国商业银行贷款实际利率等于市场利率,模拟存款利率上限放开情境,选择2005年到2010年作为研究区间,对我国10家商业银行的利差容忍度进行测度。结果显示,2005年到2010年,随着我国商业银行,尤其是国有大型商业银行,经营效率的不断提高,对利差缩小的容忍能力显著增强,并且中型规模商业银行对利率市场化改革过程中利差缩小的容忍能力普遍强于国有大型商业银行,国有大型商业银行强于小型股份制银行。     

Who will adopt electric vehicles? Segmenting and exemplifying potential buyer heterogeneity and forthcoming research

Market segmentation becomes a crucial tool for evolving transportation technology such as electric vehicles (EVs) in emerging markets to explore and implement for extensive adoption. EVs adoption is expected to grow phenomenally in near future as low emission and low operating cost vehicle, and thus, it drives a considerable amount of forthcoming academic research curiosity. The main aim of this study is to explore and identify distinct sets of potential buyer segments for EVs based on psychographic, behavioral, and socio-economic characterization by employing an integrated research framework of ‘perceived benefits-attitude-intention’, The study applied robust analytical procedures including cluster analysis, multiple discriminant analysis and Chi-square test to operationalize and validate segments from the data collected of 563 respondents using a cross-sectional online survey. The findings posit that the three distinct sets of young consumer groups have been identified and labelled as ‘Conservatives’, ‘Indifferents’, and ‘Enthusiasts’ which are deemed to be buddying EV buyers The implications are recommended, which may offer some pertinent guidance for scholars and policymakers to encourage EVs adoption in the backdrop of emerging sustainable transport market.     

Securing the Sustainability of Global Medical Nuclear Supply Chains Through Economic Cost Recovery,Risk Management,and Optimization

In this paper, we develop a new generalized network model for the optimization of the complex operations of medical nuclear supply chains in the case of the radioisotope molybdenum, with a focus on minimizing the total operational cost, the total waste cost, and the risk associated with this highly time-sensitive and perishable, but critical, product used in health-care diagnostics. Our model allows for the evaluation of transitioning the production and processing of the radioisotope from highly enriched uranium targets to low enriched uranium targets. A case study for North America demonstrates how our model and computational framework can be applied in practice.     

“公共部门扩大陷阱”对历朝驿传和漕运体系崩溃的解释

中国历朝驿传和漕运体系相同的崩溃形态是受制于公共部门扩大陷阱演化规律的深层次制度问题。公共选择学之寻租理论揭示了公共部门扩大陷阱的诱致原因,即公共部门创立后,不同的公共部门之间以及公共部门与私营部门之间,始终存在着对资源的占有、控制、收益等的博弈。在支出政策选择上,政治家总是倾向于扩大规模,扩大开支,以满足持续性地维护特定群体的利益并得到其支持的目的。这种博弈过程总是很快地走向负和博弈,日益造成巨大的社会成本,并不可逆转。     

Do the central bank actions reduce interest rate volatility?

This paper investigates how Central Bank of Brazil (CBB) actions influence market uncertainty. We consider two kinds of actions: the monetary policy decision about the interest rate target and the pure communication event of this decision published one week later. Unlike related papers, we measure the market uncertainty by the implied volatility extracted from interest rate options. Implied volatility is more suitable than physical volatility to assess economic effects since it encompass market beliefs adjusted by risk. We use an event study approach to evaluate the impact of CBB actions. The results show that both the decisions about the target rate and the communication event reduce the interest rate volatility.     

Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development

This paper provides an overview of an inherently quantitative scenario philosophy for systems analysis and innovative concept design in the context of the Air Transportation System (ATS). A general perspective of the ATS is visualized in an “atomic model” with surrounding external scenario factors and the aircraft as the key connecting element between the main stakeholders: manufacturers, airlines, air navigation service providers (ANSPs) and airports. An iterative waterfall model is presented, which serves as a mental model of integration and decomposition over cascades of levels of detail from global scenario level to a single technology. The difference between classical scenario technique and a quantitative, yet participatory methodology of developing scenarios for the ATS is described. In order to integrate and decompose over a large span of levels of details, concept design and synthesis is as important as analysis. Further, quantitative scenario development may be considered as the synthesis of a skillful manipulation of a model deck. Scenario Gaming can be a method to simulate the settlement on requirements of complex socio-technological systems with multiple stakeholders and conflicting perspectives under radically changing boundary conditions. Scenario thinking can be an innovative and explorative instrument of participatory futurology, if not reduced to a mere “input for a tool chain”.     

Capital inflow-terms of trade ‘nexus’: Does it lead to financial crisis?

The paper models the nexus of foreign capital inflow and dynamic terms of trade to explain financial crisis in the form of sudden stop or reversal of capital inflow. Crisis in this structure is rooted in the role played by dynamic terms of trade rather than informational imperfections as generally found in the existing literature. Inspite of satisfying the regularity conditions for model consistency episodes of sudden crises get magnified due to the non-linearity of the equilibrium relations. This is the novelty of this paper and differentiates it from the standard theoretical literature, and well captures empirical evidence documented in the literature. Non-linearity plays a very important role in the model. Expectation of the exchange rate depreciation has higher potential to generate a financial crisis than shift in the risk perception of foreign lenders or supply shock in the borrowing country.     

The impact of political risk on the currencies of emerging markets

This study investigates the effects of political risk on the exchange rate returns of Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Russia. The results indicate the presence of a risk premium for all currencies. Political risk was observed to negatively impact trade returns for only the Brazilian real, a result of depreciating the exchange rate. This effect was not observed for the other countries analyzed. In Brazil, transitory risk-premium volatility was positively associated with both the VIX index and political risk, indicating that greater global and local political risk increased volatility. Furthermore, local political risk had a more significant impact on risk-premium volatility than global risk.     

Does interest rate and its volatility affect banking sector development? Empirical evidence from emerging market economies

This study investigates the relationship between interest rate, interest rate volatility, and banking sector development in 12 emerging market economies located around the world. For this purpose, panel data analysis was conducted using annual data from 1980 to 2014. In parallel to the financial development literature, which asserts that banking sector development, as a broad and complex concept, cannot be measured by a single indicator, this study adopts a set of measures of banking sector development. The empirical results reveal that while interest rate has a positive impact on all banking sector indicators, this relationship weakens at higher interest levels, showing a concave relationship between interest rate and banking sector development. In addition, the empirical results provide evidence that interest rate fluctuations have a negative impact on most banking sector development (BSD) indicators, suggesting that the banking sectors of emerging countries are vulnerable to interest rate risks. Furthermore, all measures of the banking sector indicators are positively affected by economic growth rates, while this association weakens at higher levels of income, confirming a nonlinear relationship. Thus, the results have important implications for policymakers in improving the banking system and promoting the economic growth of these emerging economies.